Estimated rating change
Built on UTR Sports’ published mechanics: every match produces a per-player match rating (zero-sum between the two players), blended into a weighted average of up to 30 recent matches. Match weight reflects format length, rating-gap competitiveness, and opponent reliability. The expected-games curve is empirically calibrated — fitted to 73 real pro matches paired with UTR ratings from UTR’s public data — but UTR’s exact internal curve and weight coefficients remain proprietary, so treat this as the closest open estimate, not an official figure. Exclusions follow UTR’s published rules: matches older than 12 months, and expected blowouts (gap over 2.00, favorite wins).